Robert Reich asks, Trump Is Cornered in Iran. So What Will He Do Now?

Friends,

Trump is cornered.

Iran’s missiles, drones, and nuclear facilities have been severely hobbled, but its regime is still standing. Many of its senior political, military, and intelligence leaders are dead, but they have been replaced by others. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard survives.

Iran’s new supreme leader, in his first official message since he took over from his slain father, says Iran will continue to block the Strait of Hormuz by bombarding tankers trying to get through.

The closure has caused “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” according to the International Energy Agency. Oil has reached $100 a barrel, gas at the pump has risen almost 20 percent since the war began, and the stock market continues to slide. Higher oil prices are also raising the costs of food, medicine, electricity, and airline tickets.

Trump knows all this could deliver Congress to the Democrats in the midterms. So — with the Strait of Hormuz blocked and Iran’s new regime sounding more belligerent than ever — what does he do now?

Here are the four options:

1. He declares victory and exits the Middle East within a few days, even though the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked — hoping that Iran will unblock it to sell its own oil.

This poses a high political risk for Trump. Most Americans were against the war to begin with. If fuel prices stay high and Trump has little to show for his war, he and Republicans are almost sure to be penalized brutally in the midterms.

2. He unblocks the Strait of Hormuz with American warships escorting oil tankers, then he declares victory and gets out.

This is militarily risky. The Pentagon has been turning down requests to escort tankers through the strait, saying the threat to American warships from Iranian bombardment is too high. So, trying to open the strait now risks the deaths of more U.S. service members.

3. He spends the next two weeks trying to decimate what’s left of Iran’s missile and drone capacities and its navy, in the hope that everything will return to normal after Iran is neutered. Then he declares victory and gets out.

This is risky in a different way. Iran has shown remarkable resilience in maintaining its missile and drone offenses even as the U.S. and Israel have destroyed much of them. If Trump declares victory and Iran’s belligerence continues notwithstanding, fuel prices could remain high and the “victory” will be shown to be a sham. The worst of all worlds for Trump.

4. He gets Russia, Venezuela, and oil producer allies in the Middle East to dramatically increase production, in hopes this will reduce oil prices and contain the slide of the U.S. stock market.

This will be very hard to do. OPEC’s surplus capacity is limited. Venezuelan production is also limited; even if U.S. oil companies dramatically increased their investment there, it would take many months to boost output. Russia is selling its oil to China and India. Even with additional supplies, the Department of Energy warns that gas prices are unlikely to recede to prewar levels until mid-2027.

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So, today’s Office Hours question: What does Trump do now that he’s cornered in Iran?

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/office-hours-trump-is-cornered-in

Robert Reich: Office Hours: Trump Is Cornered in Iran. So What Will He Do Now?

Robert Reich, you left out the most likely option: Trump will try to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and will fail miserably, getting many U.S. sailors killed, virtually guaranteeing Trump will continue to attack Iran until the U.S. runs out of ammunition.

When the U.S. runs out of ammunition then Trump will declare victory and leave.

Robert, your premises are defective and your racist animosity and hatred for Iran is just as disgusting as your support for Trump and Netanyahu's illegal attack on Iran and your quiet support for regime change.

Let's start with your first premise: Option One: He declares victory and exits the Middle East within a few days, even though the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked — hoping that Iran will unblock it to sell its own oil.

Robert, Iran is selling and moving more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than prior to Trump and Netanyahu's attack on Iran. Iran does in fact control the Strait of Hormuz.

Option Two: He unblocks the Strait of Hormuz with American warships escorting oil tankers, then he declares victory and gets out.

Robert, Trump will NOT be able to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and will not be escorting any tankers through the Strait of Hormuz due to Iran's drones, missiles, underwater unmanned drones.

Option Three: He spends the next two weeks trying to decimate what’s left of Iran’s missile and drone capacities and its navy, in the hope that everything will return to normal after Iran is neutered. Then he declares victory and gets out.

Robert, Trump and Netanyahu will NOT achieve your premise: "decimate what’s left of Iran’s missile and drone capacities and its navy, in the hope that everything will return to normal after Iran is neutered."

You really should invite former U.N. weapons inspector and former U.S. Marine Scott Ritter on your podcast so he can explain to you the reality and birds and bees of the status of forces in the Middle East.

Scott Ritter's job as a U.S. Marine was to find Saddam's scud missiles and destroy them; something the U.S. never accomplished due to mobile missile launching.

Your perspective is far removed from military reality. Clearly you do not realize why the U.S. and Israel will NOT be able to stop Iran from firing missiles and launching drone attacks.

Global security experts agree that Iran may have six months or more supply of missiles and drones, whereas the U.S. and Israel will be running out of ammunition in the very near future - weeks at most, certainly not months.

Iran is waging a war of attrition in response to the U.S. and Israel's illegal war on Iran.

Option Four: He gets Russia, Venezuela, and oil producer allies in the Middle East to dramatically increase production, in hopes this will reduce oil prices and contain the slide of the U.S. stock market.

Robert, Venezuela does not produce oil that is converted to gasoline. Venezuelan oil is far too heavy and dirty to be converted to gasoline. Venezuela oil is converted to diesel fuel and heating oil only.

Trump cannot control the price of gasoline via bombing and dealmaking, but he could remove the 18 cent per gallon federal gasoline tax Americans have been paying all their lives each and every time an American buys a gallon of gasoline.

Trump won't do that because big American oil companies will cry foul.

We should be federally subsidizing a federal price freeze on groceries and other items and costs instead of giving massive federal subsidies to oil companies.

Robert, Trump suffers low intellectual capacity, suffers basic reading, writing and comprehensive skills, has the morals of a serial rapist, is mentally deranged and suffers ever-increasing dementia.

This means Trump is relying more and more on Kushner, Witkoff and Hegseth for advice and direction.

Yesterday Trump specifically stated that he attacked Iran because Kushner and Witkoff told Trump that Iran would soon produce 40 nuclear bombs if Trump didn't attack Iran.

Kushner and Witkoff are Israeli agents who will continue to tell Trump that he must not stop attacking Iran and he must not remove U.S. forces from the Middle East.

Kushner and Witkoff are New York real estate moguls and hustlers who don't know a damn thing about war, military status of forces, nuclear issues or anything of the kind.

Kushner and Witkoff do know they will continue to get paid by foreign governments as long as they convince Trump to keep attacking Iran.

The U.S. body count will grow as Kushner and Witkoff's bank accounts grow.

Today CENTCOM announced that four more U.S. service members were killed when a U.S. refueling plane crashed in Iraq.

It's worth mentioning that the Trump administration and Hegseth removed the parachutes that were standard equipment on those U.S. refueling planes to cut costs. Google it.

The American people are suffering a crisis of rising gas prices, rising retail prices thanks to greed, dementia, and state-sponsored terror against Iran.

Now the U.S. and Israel are paying the price for launching a War on Iran and waging war on Palestinians since 1948.

Trump can declare victory and go home, but Iran will continue to pound Israel at will until Iran launches a ground invasion of Israel - something the late Ayatollah called for in the days before his murder.

Iranian regime and military leaders have always spoken about writing the Final Chapter of Israel if Israel didn't stop mass murdering Palestinians and stealing Palestinian land.

US and Israel officials and leaders never understood that Khomeni issued a fatwa in the 1990's prohibiting Iran from building and using a nuclear weapon, as Islam strictly prohibits mass murder of human beings.

Iran knows that Iran doesn't need nuclear weapons to stop Israel from stealing more Palestinian land and murdering more Palestinians.

The U.S.-Israel joint attack and war on Iran will not end on Trump or Netanyahu's command, but when Iran liberates Palestinians from Israel's blockade and war on the Palestinian people.