Robert Reich: What Does Trump Do NEXT to Get Out of the Quagmire of Iran?

Friends,

Trump’s war with Iran — which he originally promised would be over in “four to five weeks” — has now entered its third month. Iran and Trump are engaged in a massive game of chicken — and time seems to be running out for both sides.

The consequences of the war for Iran’s economy are far worse than for America’s, but Iran’s dictatorship presumably can withstand public pressure more easily than Trump can, especially with midterm elections in the U.S. in less than six months. Sixty percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war.

The International Monetary Fund projects that Iran’s economy will contract 6.1 percent this year and inflation will reach nearly 70 percent. Iran’s currency, the rial, has hit record lows (around 1.32–1.8 million to the dollar), resulting in massive layoffs, high unemployment, and acute shortages of essential goods and medicine.

In the United States, the average price of gasoline has climbed to more than $4.55 per gallon, up over $1.50 since the war began in late February. Driven by a surge in energy costs from the war, inflation rose in April to an annual rate of 3.8 percent, up from 3.3 percent in March — marking the highest rate of inflation since May 2023 and making it unlikely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

So what will Trump do now? The man who claims he knows better than anyone how to make a deal has so far been outmaneuvered by the regime he says he toppled.

I’ve summarized below the four main options now open to him, according to specialists in foreign policy and the Middle East.

1. Return to the bargaining table?

Talks between the United States and Iran crumbled over the weekend.

Replying to an American proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate an end to the war, Iran demanded war reparations from the U.S., recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the strait, and an end to American sanctions.

On Sunday, Trump dismissed these demands as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.” The Iranian offer is a “piece of garbage,” Trump told reporters, adding that Tehran was in the grip of “lunatics.”

Some observers say the two sides are so far apart that a diplomatic push now stands no chance of success; Trump will never accept Iran’s demands for reparations and sovereignty over the strait.

On the other hand, a deal might be possible if Iran were willing to make major concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for ending U.S. sanctions. As Trump said Tuesday just before leaving for China, “The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran — they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

2. Resume hostilities, including bombing infrastructure?

Trump reiterated Tuesday that “we’re either going to make a deal, or they’re going to be decimated.”

Some observers believe Trump will now follow through on his late-March threat to bomb civilian energy infrastructure in Iran if Iran doesn’t reopen the strait. He said then that the U.S. military would postpone strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure only because the U.S. and Iran had “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”

But now that Trump has rejected Iran’s latest proposal, some of his advisers are urging him to attack civilian infrastructure, arguing that his late-March threat rings hollow unless he does so and that Iran’s economy is so badly battered that an attack on its infrastructure will be the last straw needed to force it to negotiate over its nuclear arsenal and ambitions.

3. Seize the regime’s uranium?

Trump is also said to be weighing a complex and risky military mission to seize the regime’s uranium with the goal of extracting nearly all 1,000 pounds of it. Trump has told political allies that the Iranians cannot keep the fissile material (which he calls “nuclear dust”), and he has openly discussed seizing it by force if Iran won’t agree at the negotiating table to give it up voluntarily.

The upside of this option is that, if successful, it would fulfill what Trump has said is his “core” mission in the war: to make it impossible for Iran to build a nuclear weapon, at least in the foreseeable future.

The downside is that such a mission would probably put American forces inside the country for days or longer, exposing them to extreme danger. Teams of U.S. forces would need to fly to the sites where the uranium is likely buried and do it under fire from Iranian surface-to-air missiles and drones. Once on site, combat troops would need to secure perimeters so that engineers with excavating equipment could search through debris and check for mines and booby traps.

It seems doubtful that Trump worries about American lives lost; his more likely concern is that the American deaths would be seen as a humiliation for him.

4. Declare victory, end U.S blockade of the strait, and leave it to other countries to open it?

Some observers believe Trump’s only way out of this quagmire is to declare victory and get out. He has repeatedly told associates that he doesn’t want a protracted war and has referred to the conflict as “an excursion” and “a lovely stay.” Some of his top aides are eager for him to focus on other matters, including the coming midterm elections, where polls are showing Republicans could face significant losses.

Trump has already claimed that the U.S. has achieved its main goals of destroying Iran’s navy and a large percentage of its missile stocks (although new evidence shows Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz). Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense (War) Pete Hegseth have echoed Trump, saying that the war is essentially “over” and that its mission has been “accomplished.”

Trump has told aides that he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. He has pressed allies in Europe and the gulf to take the lead in reopening the strait, posting on his Truth Social: “Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

Some observers believe that during Trump’s meeting with China’s Xi this week, he’ll propose that China take responsibility for opening the strait. Iran is one of China’s closest partners in the Middle East, and China is particularly dependent on oil moving through the strait. Others don’t believe Trump would entrust China with such a delicate task. Moreover, energy markets are inherently global, and if Iran continues to control traffic through the strait, the damage to the U.S. economy could become exponentially worse.

So, today’s Office Hours question: What does Trump do NEXT to get out of the quagmire in Iran?

Clearly Robert Reich, like Donald Trump and most Americans are completely clueless about Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, Israel and the U.S. military in this situation.

Reich mischaracterized the U.S. and Israel's war crimes against Iran as a "game of chicken."

This is not an effin' game of chicken. Not even close - and Reich has no earthly idea why it is NOT a game of chicken.

I will attempt to assist Reich in his confusion caused by decades of anti-Iranian propaganda delivered by the U.S. and Israel.

Reich further mischaracterizes Trump and Netanyahu's war crimes:

"The consequences of the war for Iran’s economy are far worse than for America’s, but Iran’s dictatorship presumably can withstand public pressure more easily than Trump can, especially with midterm elections in the U.S. in less than six months."

Apparently Reich doesn't know that Iran is not a dictatorship, but a democracy with elections held for every position in government except the Supreme leader, who is appointed by an elected council.

Reich doesn't know that women are elected to office and hold top positions in government as well as the private sector. Women head universities and medical clinics and hospitals.

Americans have been completely and fully brainwashed and lied to about women and democracy in Iran. The U.S. and Israel has bombed over (53) fifty-three Iranian schools, hospitals, clincs and universities.

Further, Reich doesn't know that Trump's blockade is virtually ineffective against Iran precisely because Iran can ship MORE OIL AND GOODS BY RAIL THAN BY SEA.

Reich and Americans are 100% clueless about this fact of Iran and China's brand new railroads and hi-speed trains China built connecting Iran to China, Moscow and Europe.

Reich claims four main options for Trump which are also mischaracterized based on Reich's misunderstanding of Iran and the entire situation.

I address each of the options Reich has laid out below:

I’ve summarized below the four main options now open to him, according to specialists in foreign policy and the Middle East.

1. Return to the bargaining table?

Talks between the United States and Iran crumbled over the weekend.

Replying to an American proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate an end to the war, Iran demanded war reparations from the U.S., recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the strait, and an end to American sanctions.

On Sunday, Trump dismissed these demands as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.” The Iranian offer is a “piece of garbage,” Trump told reporters, adding that Tehran was in the grip of “lunatics.”

Some observers say the two sides are so far apart that a diplomatic push now stands no chance of success; Trump will never accept Iran’s demands for reparations and sovereignty over the strait.

On the other hand, a deal might be possible if Iran were willing to make major concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for ending U.S. sanctions.

As Trump said Tuesday just before leaving for China, “The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran — they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

SITUATIONPOLITICS.COM: The issue of whether or not Iran has nuclear weapons has always been a red herring issue because Iran does not need nuclear weapons to do what Iran has already done.

Reich and Trump are completely lost on this account.

Iran already proved to Netanyahu and the U.S. that Iran enjoys total and complete missile and drone superiority, area denial dominance and target destruction dominance via Iran's superior drone, ballastic and hypersonic missile capabilities.

Don't think so? You should dial 1-800-ASK-BIBI.

The very reason that Netanyahu started this series of US-Israeli war crimes is because Iran proved during the 12-Day War that Iran can strike Israeli military targets and bases at will, overcoming, destroying and defeating Israel's Iron Dome, David's Sling and ARROW anti-missile systems.

Iran also defeated the US-provided THAAD system that used to exist in Israel until Iran destroyed it with an Iranian hypersonic missile.

Netanyahu was so shocked by Iran's ability to defeat and destroy Israel's anti-missile systems and bases that Netanyahu issued an order to the Israeli media that anyone videotaping any Israeli military installation or the skies above Israel's military installations would be sent to prison for five years.

Netanyahu was so shocked by Iran's ability to defeat and destroy Israel's anti-missile systems and bases that Netanyahu calculated that he wanted to facilitate another illegal first strike and massive attack on Iran via manipulating trump and the U.S. military into launching an illegal war crime attack on Iran.

Thus far Israel has launched (3) three illegal first strikes on Iran and the U.S. has launched (2) two illegal first strike war crimes against Iran.

Reich, Trump and most Americans either don't know or don't care that Trump and Netanyahu are hardcore war criminals who maliciously and intentionally launch multiple first strike attacks on Iran that constitute the most serious war crime a government can make against a sovereign nation: an unprovoked military first strike.

There is no "War on Iran" - there's only an ongoing series of war crimes being commited against Iran by the U.S. and Israel.

THEREFORE, the U.S. and Israel should end their war crimes immediately and stop trying to dictate anything at all to Iran - the U.S. and Israel's victims of war crimes.

The U.S. has no legal or moral right to dictate anything at all to Iran and should end their war crimes immediately.

Mischaracterizing U.S. and Israel's war crimes against Iran as a "negotiation" is like telling the rape victim that the rapist home invader is still in your house and the victim should engage in negotions with the rapist to end the rape and home invasion.

It's pure violent insanity on the part of Trump and Netanyahu.

2. Resume hostilities, including bombing infrastructure?

Trump reiterated Tuesday that “we’re either going to make a deal, or they’re going to be decimated.”

Some observers believe Trump will now follow through on his late-March threat to bomb civilian energy infrastructure in Iran if Iran doesn’t reopen the strait. He said then that the U.S. military would postpone strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure only because the U.S. and Iran had “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”

But now that Trump has rejected Iran’s latest proposal, some of his advisers are urging him to attack civilian infrastructure, arguing that his late-March threat rings hollow unless he does so and that Iran’s economy is so badly battered that an attack on its infrastructure will be the last straw needed to force it to negotiate over its nuclear arsenal and ambitions.

SITUATIONPOLITICS.COM: Trump will NOT strike Iran again for several reasons:

The Arab dictatorship Gulf States (where unlike Iran, they do NOT hold democratic elections for government office) have informed Trump DO NOT ATTACK IRAN AGAIN precisely because Iran is able to finish off Arab oil infrastructure, but more importantly, Iran already warned Trump and the Arab dictators if Trump attacks Iran again, Iran will easily destroy the Arab dictatorships salt water desalinators who would literally spell THE END of those Arab states, as mass evacuations would occur due to a total lack of water.

3. Seize the regime’s uranium?

Trump is also said to be weighing a complex and risky military mission to seize the regime’s uranium with the goal of extracting nearly all 1,000 pounds of it. Trump has told political allies that the Iranians cannot keep the fissile material (which he calls “nuclear dust”), and he has openly discussed seizing it by force if Iran won’t agree at the negotiating table to give it up voluntarily.

The upside of this option is that, if successful, it would fulfill what Trump has said is his “core” mission in the war: to make it impossible for Iran to build a nuclear weapon, at least in the foreseeable future.

The downside is that such a mission would probably put American forces inside the country for days or longer, exposing them to extreme danger. Teams of U.S. forces would need to fly to the sites where the uranium is likely buried and do it under fire from Iranian surface-to-air missiles and drones. Once on site, combat troops would need to secure perimeters so that engineers with excavating equipment could search through debris and check for mines and booby traps.

It seems doubtful that Trump worries about American lives lost; his more likely concern is that the American deaths would be seen as a humiliation for him.

SITUATIONPOLITICS.COM: Reich presents a myriad of fantasies, propaganda and misinformation in his above claim.

First of all, the U.S. and israel has no idea where Iran's uranium stockpile is located.

Secondly, even if Trump magically knew where Iran's uranium was located, U.S. forces are physically incapable of extracting such uranium without being killed.

Third, there is no such thing as U.S. warships cruising the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. legacy media and the Trump admin works overtime trying to convince Americans that U.S. warships are cruising the Strait of Hormuz.

Each time the U.S. sends a U.S. warship or patrol boat towards Iran's red line at the far eastern front of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran fires warning shots at those U.S. vessels and the U.S. vessels turn around and return to the Indian Ocean with the rest of the U.S. NAVY strike groups.

4. Declare victory, end U.S blockade of the strait, and leave it to other countries to open it?

Some observers believe Trump’s only way out of this quagmire is to declare victory and get out. He has repeatedly told associates that he doesn’t want a protracted war and has referred to the conflict as “an excursion” and “a lovely stay.” Some of his top aides are eager for him to focus on other matters, including the coming midterm elections, where polls are showing Republicans could face significant losses.

Trump has already claimed that the U.S. has achieved its main goals of destroying Iran’s navy and a large percentage of its missile stocks (although new evidence shows Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz). Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense (War) Pete Hegseth have echoed Trump, saying that the war is essentially “over” and that its mission has been “accomplished.”

Trump has told aides that he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. He has pressed allies in Europe and the gulf to take the lead in reopening the strait, posting on his Truth Social: “Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

Some observers believe that during Trump’s meeting with China’s Xi this week, he’ll propose that China take responsibility for opening the strait. Iran is one of China’s closest partners in the Middle East, and China is particularly dependent on oil moving through the strait. Others don’t believe Trump would entrust China with such a delicate task. Moreover, energy markets are inherently global, and if Iran continues to control traffic through the strait, the damage to the U.S. economy could become exponentially worse.

SITUATIONPOLITICS.COM: Trump is engaging in "disaster capitalism" - profiting from Trump's war crimes by several methods; including his Trump gang shorting oil and precious mineral and material stocks to the tune of billions each and every time Trump creates the illusion of ebb and flow via so-called "negotiations."

Trump and his billionaire buddies want economic collapse worldwide and in the U.S. as Trump and billionaires profit from man-made disaster capitalism.

Because Iran can export and import more goods and oil by Chinese rail than by Iranian ships, Iran will not do ANYTHING AT ALL on Trump's terms, period.