SituationPolitics.Com routinely responds to Robert Reich's questions.

Friends,

Yesterday, Trump said that he’d do whatever is necessary to ease the oil crisis. He also assured America that the crisis “will be over soon.”

Bullshit.

The problem isn’t just that Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. It’s also that Iran, Israel, and the United States have all inflicted — and continue to inflict — serious damage to the oil and gas infrastructure of the Middle East. This damage will take months if not years to repair.

At one point on Thursday oil prices jumped to $119 a barrel before falling back to around $111 a barrel — all but guaranteeing that the price of gas at the pump will continue to rise, as will the prices of many other products and services indirectly affected by oil prices.

What we are now witnessing is one of the grossest military and political blunders in modern history.

It’s not hard to understand why Trump is trapped in Iran. He doesn’t listen to anyone outside his small circle of sycophants who tell him what he wants to hear.

But there’s something else. Iran has adopted an asymmetric war strategy that’s working.

I’m indebted to Marty Manley for uncovering a fascinating historical fact that sheds light on what Iran is doing. During the Korean War, U.S. Air Force Colonel John Boyd came up with a theory of competitive decision-making that shaped American military doctrine for a generation. He called it the OODA loop: Observe, Orient, Decide, Act.

Boyd found that victory doesn’t go to the side with more firepower. It goes to the side that cycles through the OODA loop faster — observing what’s changing, orienting to its meaning, deciding what to do, and acting before its adversary does.

Get inside your opponent’s loop, Boyd reasoned, and you don’t just outpace him. You break his ability to form a coherent picture of the war he’s fighting.

Manley observes that Iran has adopted Boyd’s approach. Iran hasn’t needed to match American firepower; it’s needed only to generate economic and political problems for Washington that outrun Washington’s ability to orient, decide, and act.

Iran has gotten inside Trump’s OODA loop because Iran has responded to U.S. airstrikes by widening the war horizontally — attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, launching drones and missiles at Gulf state oil and gas infrastructure, provoking the U.S. and Israel to destroy even more of that infrastructure, hitting Amazon data centers in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain (causing regional outages for banking, e-commerce, and cloud services), and squeezing other choke points that the global economy depends on.

Iran’s leaders — veterans of asymmetric wars in Iraq and Syria — are applying the same asymmetric logic to Trump’s war. Inexpensive drones, short-range missiles, and sea mines can have the same effect that IEDs had in Iraq — only with far greater strategic impact, because they disrupt global supply chains.

What has Washington done? Dropped more bombs and launched more missiles.

On Wednesday Israel struck at the crown jewel of Iran’s energy industry — the giant South Pars gas field that Iran shares with Qatar and is by far the largest in the world. (Israel says Trump gave the attack his blessing; Trump says he didn’t.) Iran quickly retaliated with an attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas facility.

The attacks have sent the global oil benchmark soaring and prompted a mad scramble in Washington. Trump threatens “to blow up the entirety” of Iran’s South Pars gas holdings if Iran attacks Qatar again. His treasury secretary says the U.S. will consider lifting sanctions on millions of barrels of Iranian oil.

Since he and Israel began bombing Iran, Trump’s strategy has been entirely reactive. Iran is generating problems for Washington faster than Washington can contain them — a clear sign that Iran is inside Trump’s OODA loop.

Trump and Israel assumed that overwhelming airpower would either compel Iran to surrender or trigger regime change. But neither has happened. The regime seems more entrenched and bellicose than ever.

As Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz and attacks its Gulf neighbors’ oil and gas infrastructure, the cost-benefit ratio continues to shift against Trump: Economic and political pressures are mounting on Washington faster than they are on Tehran.

Sure, Iran is hurting — but, as Manley argues, Iran can sustain its counteroffensive more easily and longer than the U.S. can sustain economic damage to Iran. An Iranian Shahed drone made of styrofoam and powered by a motorcycle engine, for example, costs orders of magnitude less than the precision missiles sent to intercept it or the economic havoc it causes when it ignites a tanker, data center, or desalination plant.

In addition, the longer Trump’s OODA loop stays broken, the more bad consequences occur that no one in the Trump regime anticipated. Trump’s war in Iran is now being led by Israel rather than the other way around, and Trump has no easy way to alter this power imbalance.

The war has also shifted the power balance between Russia and Ukraine, with Russian oil revenues potentially doubling as U.S. weapons stocks become depleted.

So what’s next for the U.S.? Is there any way out for Trump?

He could put “boots on the ground” in Iran and attempt to seize Iran’s stockpile of approximately 970 pounds of 60 percent enriched uranium — enough to produce multiple nuclear weapons if further enriched. If he could pull this off, a major feat.

But this would be a particularly dangerous move in terms of American lives lost. It could even risk an accidental nuclear explosion.

Moreover, no one knows where the enriched uranium is being stored. In the wake of U.S. and Israeli strikes last June, it’s likely in deep underground tunnels near Isfahan and other secure locations, but the International Atomic Energy Agency can’t verify the exact locations or status of the stockpile due to lack of access to bombed sites.

What about returning to the diplomatic table? As Richard Haass points out, Trump hardly gave diplomacy a chance before launching his war. U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner blended maximal positions — effectively demanding an end to Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile force, and support for proxies — with minimal time for negotiation.

Haass notes the stark contrast between this process and the administration’s apparently endless willingness to give Russia the benefit of the doubt and compromise Ukraine’s interests.

If Trump returned to negotiations now, from a position of demonstrated military capability rather than exhaustion, Iran might be forced to reorient and respond to an adversary that did something unpredictable.

The problem is that the Trump regime has repeatedly reneged on his promises to Iran, so Tehran has no reason to believe any offer Trump makes.

So, presumably for the foreseeable future, Iran will remain in Trump’s OODA loop, Trump will remain trapped in Iran, and American consumers will be trapped by soaring energy prices.

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/playing-it-strait

Robert Reich: The REAL Reason Trump is Trapped in Iran

And why American consumers are up Shit's Creek

Robert Reich: apparently it took warmongering, racist nutjob Donald Trump and Muslim-hating, babykiller Benjamin Netanyahu executing the ultimate war crime of unauthorized military attacks on a sovereign nation to get Robert Reich to finally come on up out of those Zionist bushes.

Yes, I called you a Zionist because you propagate Netanyahu Zionist talking points, in particular when you said:

"He could put 'boots on the ground' in Iran and attempt to seize Iran’s stockpile of approximately 970 pounds of 60 percent enriched uranium — enough to produce multiple nuclear weapons if further enriched. If he could pull this off, a major feat."

You put your warmongering, Persian-hating, bombing pants on when you said that Robert.

Tell us you don't understand Islam and Iranians without telling us you don't understand Islam and Iranians.

Tell us you're willing to murder Iranians to "protect America, Israel and our security interests in the area" - U.S. military bases surrounding Iran - without telling us that you're willing to violate U.S. and international law to mass murder Iranians.

Tell us you believe Netanyahu's (and a majority of Israelis) classic racist lie that Iranians, Lebanese and Palestinians hate Israeli Jews because they are Jews, and that's why you support Netanyahu's criminal war doctrine that Israelis must "kill or be killed."

Palestinian, Persian and Lebanese leaders have repeatedly stated for decades that the reason they hate and attack Israeli Jews is because Israeli Jews murder Palestinians, Persians and Lebanese on Palestinian, Persian and Lebanese land and expand the borders of Israel by murdering Palestinians and stealing their land.

Netanyahu and Israelis do not want Iran or anyone else to help Palestinians fight for freedom from US-backed Israeli land theft, occupation, mass murder and mass imprisonment of millions of Palestinians.

If Iranians were as dastardly as Israelis, Iran would have already built a nuclear bomb and theatened Israel with total nuclear annhilation if Israel didn't comply with U.N. Resolution 242 and fully withdraw from the Palestinian territories; including the dissolution of Israel's illegal military blockades and open air prison camp they call Gaza.

So you're going to sit there and tell me, an American, that the U.S. and Israel must "do what it takes" "kill or be killed" "boots on the ground" to stop Iran from building nuclear bombs and launching nuclear missiles at Israel?

You're 80 years old and you still don't understand Iran, Islam and the U.S. history of ass-raping Iran?

You're 80 or near 80 and you still don't know that Islam strictly forbids mass murder of human beings and that's why the late Ayatalloh issued a fatwa in 1992 prohibiting Iran from building or using nuclear bombs on anyone?

You mean you didn't know that Iran could have already built and launched a nuclear missile in the past 25 years, but have no desire to do so?

You mean that you didn't know that Iran already enjoys "missile dominance" over Israel and does not need nuclear weapons to respond to Israeli first strike attacks?

You mean you don't understand what's really been happening amongst the U.S., Israel, Lebanese, Syrians and Palestinians?

The root problem is that Netanyahu, Israeli officials and a majority of Jewish Israelis believe in, support and subscribe to achieving their national goal they call "GREATER ISRAEL."

The problem with their Israeli national goal is they believe that Israel owns all the land from the river to the sea; from the Nile to the Euphrates River.

They believe Palestinians, Arabs, Muslims are simply troublemaking squatters living on Israeli land and borrowed time and are in need of immediate eviction.

Israelis are not content to live within their own borders, as evidenced by the illegal, unauthorized expansion of the State of Israel since being established as a state in 1948.

The reasons that Netanyahu executed more than one first strike against Iran during the second Trump administration is because Iran is preventing and stopping Netanyahu and Israelis from stealing all the Muslim and Arab land "from the river to the sea."

Netanyahu and Israelis blame Iran for stopping Israel from stealing the West Bank and Gaza and all the natural resources that go with stealing Gaza.

A more timely reason Netanyahu executed an illegal first strike against Iran was because Netanyahu was so angry that during the 12-day war, Iran defeated Israel's Iron Dome, David's Sling and ARROW systems via Iran's evasive hypersonic missiles - missiles that cannot be stopped by any known means by anyone - including the hypersonic missile makers themselves.

You either have operational evasive hypersonic missiles or you don't.

The U.S. and Israel does NOT have operational evasive hypersonic missiles - which is actually a scandal unto itself.

Congress, the Pentagon and U.S. defense contractors wanted BIG EASYMADE PROFITS instead of actually addressing the future of armed conflict.

I support diplomacy and diplomatic intelligence instead of increasing armed conflict and using military intelligence to target populations and infrastructure.

The Pentagon and Congress were wooed by Democrat and Republican lobbyists for private defense contractors (we call them U.S. Senators) into bad decision-making:

wasting the past 30 years and trillions of dollars on the failed F-35 jet program and failed U.S. shipborne lasers that are virtually useless and worthless - INSTEAD OF heavily investing in the real future of global security: evasive hypersonic missiles and drones, such as Russia, China and Iran did.

That's WHY Iran did not invest their money in surface fleets and butt-in-the-seat fighter jets; because Iran knew that Israel and the U.S. would not be capable of defending against evasive hypersonic missile attack and drone swarms.

Russia, China and Iran recognized the future of warfare - heavily investing and operationalizing it while American private defense contractors made big easy bucks over the decades by charging the shit out of U.S. taxpayers for a litany of bullshit; including jet engine redesign, rebuilding, cost overruns, budget increases, etc. FAILING to invest in operational hypersonic missile production and capability.

Now the U.S. is years and years behind Russia, China and Iran.

One of the stupidest things that Trump and Hegseth constantly brag about is "air dominance" over the skies of Iran.

What did "air dominance" do for the U.S. and the people of Iraq and Afghanistan?

What did "air dominance" do for Israel and the people of Gaza?

U.S. "air dominance" does not effect regime change but kills men, women and children while destroying their homes, lives and infrastructure.

Hegseth and the Pentagon enjoy "air dominance" over Iran right now.

And what is U.S. "air dominance" doing for the people of Iran?

The U.S. and Israel are targeting and killing civilians and public infrastructure, seeking to cut power to all Iranians.

Trump and Hegseth adopted Netanyahu's Kill Doctrine of mass murdering civilians in order to destroy their society and effect regime change from the ground up.

Is that what Robert Reich supports?

You support sending U.S. ground forces into Iran to "find the nuclear prize" and to stop wild-eyed Iranians from nuking Israel in the next 45 minutes.

If U.S. forces go into Iranian missile range near the Strait, U.S. soldiers will die via ballastic missile attack. There's no if, and or buts about it.

U.S. forces are "softening up" the coastline the best they can, but will not be able to stop incoming drones and hypersonic ballastic missiles from other parts of Iran.

I contend that Trump has already agreed and acquiesced to Netanyahu's demand for American boots on the ground to "get the job done."

American soldiers dying in battle is a sacrifice that Trump and Netanyahu are willing to make.

Robert Reich is looking for a Bush-Powell-Rumsfeld nuclear weapon potential hidden in the mountains of Iran while Trump cashes in on renting the U.S. military to Netanyahu so Netanyahu can kill as many Iranians as possible and destroy as much Iranian infrastructure as possible.

Netanyahu, Trump, Biden, Obama, Clinton are all Muslim-hating babykillers and celebrated war criminals.

https://situationpolitics.com/robert-reich-the-real-reason-trump-is-trapped-in-iran